So where will those Sinn Féin gains come from?

There's an old trick in political campaigning whereby you underestimate the scale of your ambition — say by aiming for five seat gains when you expect to get ten — so that you can play up your final result as a whopping electoral endorsement.

However, Sinn Féin spokespersons have already gone on record as being confident of doubling their seat count in the upcoming 24 May election to 10. That means any result less than ten, an 80 per cent increase to nine seats, for example, would be presented as a defeat.

Those of us old enough to remember when Sinn Féin didn't fight for seats in the Dáil, a policy dumped in 1986, and who can then recall the fallow years after that decision when they couldn't win a seat in Teach Laighean, regard five as a respectable, if ineffective, number and would view nine or ten as the beginning of a new era.

But will it propel Sinn Féin into government? Probably not, unless Labour were foolish enough to reject Fianna Fáil's post-election advances. I'll be in the TG4 studio in Dublin for their election marathon, running from 2pm-2am on 25-26 May, and intend to swot up on the 43 constituencies before then. But at a quick glance, here's the constituencies in which SF should hold a seat, gain a seat or just give the other candidates a good run for their money.

1. Kerry North with Martin Ferris to hold on despite his drink-driving faux pas.
2. Cavan-Monaghan where Caoimhghín reigns supreme despite a recent health scare.
3. Dublin South-Central where Aengus Ó Snodaigh (pictured) has been working like a Dervish since getting in five years ago.
4. Dublin South-West where the unassuming Seán Crowe has, likewise, had his nose to the grindstone.
5. Louth. There was talk that entrepreneur TD Arthur Morgan was to step down but now that he's running this seat is safe as houses.
6. Now the tricky ones. Can Piaras Ó Dochartaigh take Donegal South-West. For my money, yes. The youth are with him, the wind's at his back.
7. In Donegal North-East Pádraig Mac Lochlainn should make it a Donegal double.
8. Mary Lou to come home in Dublin Central but whose seat will she take?
9. Larry O'Toole's day could come in Dublin North-East, putting the cap on 30 years of coalface community and political activism for which he's paid a high personal cost.
10. Dessie Ellis has been through the wringer in his republican career but could be another republican to make the move from prison to parliament.
11. Now I'm getting a bit more speculative. John O'Dwyer to make the breakthrough for SF in Wexford?
12. Seán McManus to finally make it in the new Sligo-North Leitrim seat as Marian Harkin bows out?
13. Joe Reilly to hit a home run in the reconfigured Meath West constituency?

There may be a few other dark horses out there. If so, don't hide their light under a bushel. Let's have them.